But knowledge gives us power—to separate facts from fears, speculation from reality, and worst-case scenarios from more likely outcomes. And this is my topic for today. What we know about AI, what ...

The large increase and subsequent decline of unauthorized immigrant workers in recent years have raised questions about the impact of these changes on local labor markets across the United States. New ...

In 2024, the San Francisco Fed and the Federal Reserve System Innovation Office launched the EmergingTech Economic Research Network (EERN) to support a better ...

The Federal Reserve designed its Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility to ease liquidity issues and support small ...

While the risks to price stability versus maximum employment – the Fed's two congressionally mandated goals – look "relatively balanced,” Daly said, the ...

Using administrative data from France, we document that within the same detailed occupation, industry, and commuting zone, ...

The pace of job growth cooled through mid-2025, while the unemployment rate rose relatively little. This seeming puzzle is explained by an even stepdown of labor supply and demand, meaning slowing ...

The change in the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 was the largest in the modern era. One way to assess the effects of such a large shock on unemployment and inflation is by looking at data from ...

The United States announced new, higher tariff rates this year. Tariffs can affect supply chains, investment, and firms’ input costs, resulting in supply-side effects such as higher inflation and ...

Financial markets repriced assets across a wide range of sectors following the U.S. trade policy announcement on April 2, 2025. Analysis suggests that market participants interpreted tariffs to have ...

State-level unemployment claims can provide a real-time measure of national labor market conditions and the overall state of the economy. A rapid and widespread buildup of stress in state labor ...