Teams with Lock status have at least a 95% chance to make the tournament, according to the BPI forecast. (Yes, this means that 5% of the time, a team marked as a lock will miss the tourney. We set the threshold there as a nod to the traditional standard for significance testing.)

Conference tournaments in some smaller mid-major men’s leagues get started this week, while power conferences are wrapping up the regular season. Here’s an updated look at the bubble picture as teams make their final auditions to the selection committee,