What do governments, businesses and individuals have in common? They’ve all invested time and money in forecasting how long a project will take to complete. Despite the forecasting, every one of them ...

Narrative fallacy is a term introduced by Nassim Taleb [1]. It refers to our difficulty looking at a sequence of facts without connecting them in some way, either to each other or to something else we ...

With the constant stream of data about COVID-19, it can be hard to make sense of all the numbers. We look at the base rate fallacy, and how some people are making this mistake when assessing risk.