The World Science Festival's panel on Probability and Risk started out in an unusual manner: MIT's Josh Tennenbaum strode onto a stage and flipped a coin five times, claiming he was psychically ...

Long before statistical whiz Nate Silver predicted the outcome of the 2012 presidential election and "Moneyball" became a household word, structural engineers employed the Monte Carlo method of ...

The design and construction of capital projects can be extremely complex. Uncertainty and risk add to this complexity and, as a result, many projects experience significant cost overruns and schedule ...

Pathological behaviors toward drugs and food rewards have underlying commonalities. Risk-taking has a fourfold pattern varying as a function of probability and valence leading to the nonlinearity of ...

Risk and uncertainty are rarely evaluated as an integral part of the planning process. An array of risks—from hydrocarbon potential and operating characteristics, to political or market factors—can ...

Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA) represents a significant evolution in the evaluation of nuclear power plant safety, integrating time-dependent models of system evolution with stochastic ...

What Are Risk-Neutral Probabilities? Risk-neutral probabilities are probabilities of potential future outcomes adjusted for risk, which are then used to compute expected asset values. In other words, ...

Operational risk is one of the influential risks identified by banking practitioners, and as the international banking supervisor, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has paid special attention ...